The parcours this year is probably the most exciting of the three Big Tours, since I personally think that both Giro and Tour organizers could have done much better and provide us with more exciting races and stages. There are 3 ITTs for a total of just over 60kms and 5 mountain top finishes plus many other climbs and descents along the way. So if the contenders are game we may be in for some real fun.Contenders we say, so who are they? The major headlines and a lot of the public’s interest are leaning towards the comeback of the great felon: Alexander Vinokourov. The Kazakh will be aching to show that he is still what he used to be (maybe even without external help) and that he can still race at the top level at 35 years of age and after a two-year ban.
Without last year’s top 3 finishers a favourite by default has to be Ezequiel Mosquera who finished fourth last year and would like to work on that result in order to climb up the podium, which would be a fantastic result for his Xacobeo-Galicia team, who were invited also to the Giro but performed poorly. Two other Spanish riders who will do their best to win it all are Alejandro Valverde and Samuel Sanchez, with the former that will try to avoid his customary day off that never allowed him to be a real contender in a 3-week race, while the latter will try to finish in the top 3 and also to arrive in top shape at the World Champ in Mendrisio which can well be perfectly suited for him.
A rider who will want to avenge a terrible season in Cadel Evans, since the aussie wants to put his horrible Tour behind him and have a strong Vuelta to show his team owners that he’s still in his prime and only had a (very) disappointing July. Another rider with something to prove, in his case that he can be a contender in a 3-week race and not only in shorter ones, is young Robert Gesink: the Dutchman will lead the Rabobank team in the Vuelta, which as said above starts in Holland this year.
The Saxo Bank team fields on paper a very strong side with the two Schlecks and youngster Fulgsang their spearheads. I sincerely doubt that both Andy and Frank will try to win the Vuelta; my opinion is that they will instead use the Vuelta as warm up for Mendrisio, where they can both be serious contenders. We can use almost the same exact words for Damiano Cunego with the Italian more focused on trimming his physical condition for the WC than on the Vuelta itself (and here I do believe he should focus more on becoming the next Bettini instead of stubbornly try to win another Grand Tour since he’s not gonna do it, but we’ll talk about that in another occasion).
The Liquigas team can be already happy of their season so far, with Pellizzotti finishing third in the Giro and winning the Polka-dot jersey at the Tour, Basso making his comeback to finish 5th in the Giro, Nibali and Kreuziger looking good for the whole Tour. Now Basso has stated that he’ll be a contender in the Vuelta, and I do hope for him that he’ll be; there are better chances for him now than he had in the Giro since now he’s more accustomed to racing while before the Giro he didn’t have much chance to race in order to get back the feeling of it that a rider needs. He’ll we helped (or he will help) the young Czech Roman Kreuziger that after more ups than downs at the Tour would love to prove that he can ride two top level Big Tours in the same season.
So, Saturday the bikes will roll in one of motorsports’ temples, with the Bern Express Cancellara in pole position to take the lead. The first hard mountaintop finish will be on the 8th stage atop the Alto de Aitana, but also in earlier stages (the one in Liége and the two in Spain before the ITT) we could be in for some real treats. Now it’s up to the riders to show that the organizers’ choices were right and that this race can be more exciting than this year’s Giro and Tour.
If I was to make a prediction I's say for the top 3:
- Evans
- Basso
- Mosquera
but not necessarily in that order.
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